Stock market slump
The market may be due for a harsh correction. That's the view of John Hussman, president of the mutual fund Hussman Investment Trust, seasoned investor, and Stanford University economics PhD. Why so bearish on the market?
Hussman looks at his own proprietary measure of the market. That metric looks at the value of all non-financial stocks relative to a specialized earnings measure, which Hussman calls value-added.
But Hussman's main point is that back in and there were a relatively small group of super-expensive stocks, including technology, and later finance and housing companies, respectively, that drove the average valuation of the stock market much higher than normal. That's why Hussman says the risks of investing in the stock market right now are much more widespread and scary than they were in the past. That's much longer than usual and a red flag for many warning that the market is due for a dip.
Hussman says investors have been mesmerized by low interest rates.
But low interest rates also signal a sluggish economy, which will translate to lower revenue figures. Historically, if the economy picks up, interest rates will rise. That will boost earnings, but the high interest rates will make those earnings worth less to stock market investors.
That's what appears to be happening now. Of course, before you call your broker yelling, "Sell," consider this: Hussman ability to predict where stocks are headed appears to be waning.
Ford Defends Strategy as CEO Pressed on Stock Slump | Fox Business
Hussman gained fame in and again in , when he predicted stock market crashes and was able to save his investors from much of the losses in both market drops. Recently, Hussman's returns haven't been that good. What's more, investors seem convinced that Donald Trump and his raft of policy proposals, including cutting taxes and spending money on infrastructure, will goose the economy and the market.
That hasn't stopped Hussman from continuing to sound the warning alarm. Hussman points out that salaries as a share of GDP are close to record lows, and corporate debt is near a high.
Profits, he argues, are sure to go down, when companies are forced to pay more to both their workers as wage pressure increases, as well as to their lenders as interest rates rise. In addition, any cuts to corporate taxes, Hussman says, likely won't help nearly as much as is anticipated, because the effective corporate tax rate is already near the lowest level in history.
The stock market may continue to go up, but if it goes down, Hussman will be able to say, "You were warned, again. Famed Investor Predicts Historic Market Drop. Customer Service Site Map Privacy Policy Advertising Ad Choices Terms of Use Your California Privacy Rights Careers. All products and services featured are based solely on editorial selection.
FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website.
Stock Market - The Blade
Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Interactive Data. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar , Inc. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.
